Tuesday, September 28, 2004
Swagger vs. Substance (NY times)
Let's face it: whatever happens in Thursday's debate, cable news will proclaim President Bush the winner. This will reflect the political bias so evident during the party conventions. It will also reflect the undoubted fact that Mr. Bush does a pretty good Clint Eastwood imitation.
But what will the print media do? Let's hope they don't do what they did four years ago.
Interviews with focus groups just after the first 2000 debate showed Al Gore with a slight edge. Post-debate analysis should have widened that edge. After all, during the debate, Mr. Bush told one whopper after another - about his budget plans, about his prescription drug proposal and more. The fact-checking in the next day's papers should have been devastating
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Let's face it: whatever happens in Thursday's debate, cable news will proclaim President Bush the winner. This will reflect the political bias so evident during the party conventions. It will also reflect the undoubted fact that Mr. Bush does a pretty good Clint Eastwood imitation.
But what will the print media do? Let's hope they don't do what they did four years ago.
Interviews with focus groups just after the first 2000 debate showed Al Gore with a slight edge. Post-debate analysis should have widened that edge. After all, during the debate, Mr. Bush told one whopper after another - about his budget plans, about his prescription drug proposal and more. The fact-checking in the next day's papers should have been devastating
more
A different noise (Guardian)
In the first of his weekly columns for Guardian Unlimited, Markos Moulitsas tells how US liberals have fought back against rightwing domination of the media since their 'goring' in 2000
It was the year 2000, and Democrats were running on a record of peace and prosperity stewarded by the capable, if morally imperfect, Bill Clinton. It was a race that should have been won by their candidate, Al Gore. In fact, it was won by Al Gore, but the Rightwing Noise Machine kept it close enough to be stolen by the Republicans and their allies at the supreme court.
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In the first of his weekly columns for Guardian Unlimited, Markos Moulitsas tells how US liberals have fought back against rightwing domination of the media since their 'goring' in 2000
It was the year 2000, and Democrats were running on a record of peace and prosperity stewarded by the capable, if morally imperfect, Bill Clinton. It was a race that should have been won by their candidate, Al Gore. In fact, it was won by Al Gore, but the Rightwing Noise Machine kept it close enough to be stolen by the Republicans and their allies at the supreme court.
more
Thursday, September 16, 2004
Pre-emptive Paranoia (NY times)
Here's how bad off the Democrats are: They're cowering behind closed doors, whispering that if it should ever turn out that Republicans are behind this, it would be so exquisitely Machiavellian, so beyond what Democrats are capable of, they should just fold and concede the election now - before the Republicans have to go to the trouble of stealing it again.
There's no evidence - it's just a preposterous, paranoid fantasy at this point. But it speaks to the jitters of the Democrats that they're consumed with speculation about whether Karl Rove, the master of dirty tricks and surrogate sleaze, could have set up CBS in a diabolical pre-emptive strike to undermine damaging revelations about Bush 43's privileged status and vanishing act in the National Guard, and his odd refusal to take his required physical when ordered.
In this vast left-wing conspiracy theory, Mr. Rove takes real evidence on W.'s shirking and transfers it to documents doomed to be exposed as phony (thereby undermining the real goods), then funnels it through third parties to Dan Rather, Bush 41's nemesis on Iran-contra. A perfect bank shot.
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U.S. Intelligence Shows Pessimism on Iraq's Future (NY times)
WASHINGTON, Sept. 15 - A classified National Intelligence Estimate prepared for President Bush in late July spells out a dark assessment of prospects for Iraq, government officials said Wednesday.
The estimate outlines three possibilities for Iraq through the end of 2005, with the worst case being developments that could lead to civil war, the officials said. The most favorable outcome described is an Iraq whose stability would remain tenuous in political, economic and security terms.
"There's a significant amount of pessimism," said one government official who has read the document, which runs about 50 pages. The officials declined to discuss the key judgments - concise, carefully written statements of intelligence analysts' conclusions - included in the document.
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Here's how bad off the Democrats are: They're cowering behind closed doors, whispering that if it should ever turn out that Republicans are behind this, it would be so exquisitely Machiavellian, so beyond what Democrats are capable of, they should just fold and concede the election now - before the Republicans have to go to the trouble of stealing it again.
There's no evidence - it's just a preposterous, paranoid fantasy at this point. But it speaks to the jitters of the Democrats that they're consumed with speculation about whether Karl Rove, the master of dirty tricks and surrogate sleaze, could have set up CBS in a diabolical pre-emptive strike to undermine damaging revelations about Bush 43's privileged status and vanishing act in the National Guard, and his odd refusal to take his required physical when ordered.
In this vast left-wing conspiracy theory, Mr. Rove takes real evidence on W.'s shirking and transfers it to documents doomed to be exposed as phony (thereby undermining the real goods), then funnels it through third parties to Dan Rather, Bush 41's nemesis on Iran-contra. A perfect bank shot.
more
U.S. Intelligence Shows Pessimism on Iraq's Future (NY times)
WASHINGTON, Sept. 15 - A classified National Intelligence Estimate prepared for President Bush in late July spells out a dark assessment of prospects for Iraq, government officials said Wednesday.
The estimate outlines three possibilities for Iraq through the end of 2005, with the worst case being developments that could lead to civil war, the officials said. The most favorable outcome described is an Iraq whose stability would remain tenuous in political, economic and security terms.
"There's a significant amount of pessimism," said one government official who has read the document, which runs about 50 pages. The officials declined to discuss the key judgments - concise, carefully written statements of intelligence analysts' conclusions - included in the document.
more
Friday, September 10, 2004
Kerry Says Bush Assault Weapons Stance Aids Terrorists (NY times)
President Bush campaigned today in sections of Appalachia, where he said that his economic and tax policies were turning things around. In St. Louis, Senator John Kerry said the president was helping terrorists by letting a ban on assault weapons expire next week.
Mr. Bush spoke at a rally in Huntington, W.Va., where he promised the crowd that if the American people returned him to office, he would keep the country safe from dangers from abroad and protect the people at home through prudent taxes, better schools and a health-care plan that is responsive to senior citizens.
"Many people change jobs and careers several times over the course of a lifetime," Mr. Bush said, "yet many of the fundamental systems the tax code, health coverage, pension plans, worker training were created for the world of yesterday, not tomorrow. So for the next four years we'll transform these systems to help our citizens."
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How Many Deaths Will It Take? (NY times)
It was Vietnam all over again - the heartbreaking head shots captioned with good old American names:
Jose Casanova, Donald J. Cline Jr., Sheldon R. Hawk Eagle, Alyssa R. Peterson.
Eventually there'll be a fine memorial to honor the young Americans whose lives were sacrificed for no good reason in Iraq. Yesterday, under the headline "The Roster of the Dead," The New York Times ran photos of the first thousand or so who were killed.
They were sent off by a president who ran and hid when he was a young man and his country was at war. They fought bravely and died honorably. But as in Vietnam, no amount of valor or heroism can conceal the fact that they were sent off under false pretenses to fight a war that is unwinnable.
How many thousands more will have to die before we acknowledge that President Bush's obsession with Iraq and Saddam Hussein has been a catastrophe for the United States?
Joshua T. Byers, Matthew G. Milczark, Harvey E. Parkerson 3rd, Ivory L. Phipps.
Fewer and fewer Americans believe the war in Iraq is worth the human treasure we are losing and the staggering amounts of money it is costing. But no one can find a way out of this tragic mess, which is why that dreaded word from the Vietnam era - quagmire - has been resurrected. Most Washington insiders agree with Senator John McCain, who said he believes the U.S. will be involved militarily in Iraq for 10 or 20 more years.
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The Dishonesty Thing (NY times)
It's the dishonesty, stupid. The real issue in the National Guard story isn't what George W. Bush did three decades ago. It's the recent pattern of lies: his assertions that he fulfilled his obligations when he obviously didn't, the White House's repeated claims that it had released all of the relevant documents when it hadn't.
It's the same pattern of dishonesty, this time involving personal matters that the public can easily understand, that some of us have long seen on policy issues, from global warming to the war in Iraq. On budget matters, which is where I came in, serious analysts now take administration dishonesty for granted.
It wasn't always that way. Three years ago, those of us who accused the administration of cooking the budget books were ourselves accused, by moderates as well as by Bush loyalists, of being "shrill." These days the coalition of the shrill has widened to include almost every independent budget expert.
more
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President Bush campaigned today in sections of Appalachia, where he said that his economic and tax policies were turning things around. In St. Louis, Senator John Kerry said the president was helping terrorists by letting a ban on assault weapons expire next week.
Mr. Bush spoke at a rally in Huntington, W.Va., where he promised the crowd that if the American people returned him to office, he would keep the country safe from dangers from abroad and protect the people at home through prudent taxes, better schools and a health-care plan that is responsive to senior citizens.
"Many people change jobs and careers several times over the course of a lifetime," Mr. Bush said, "yet many of the fundamental systems the tax code, health coverage, pension plans, worker training were created for the world of yesterday, not tomorrow. So for the next four years we'll transform these systems to help our citizens."
more
How Many Deaths Will It Take? (NY times)
It was Vietnam all over again - the heartbreaking head shots captioned with good old American names:
Jose Casanova, Donald J. Cline Jr., Sheldon R. Hawk Eagle, Alyssa R. Peterson.
Eventually there'll be a fine memorial to honor the young Americans whose lives were sacrificed for no good reason in Iraq. Yesterday, under the headline "The Roster of the Dead," The New York Times ran photos of the first thousand or so who were killed.
They were sent off by a president who ran and hid when he was a young man and his country was at war. They fought bravely and died honorably. But as in Vietnam, no amount of valor or heroism can conceal the fact that they were sent off under false pretenses to fight a war that is unwinnable.
How many thousands more will have to die before we acknowledge that President Bush's obsession with Iraq and Saddam Hussein has been a catastrophe for the United States?
Joshua T. Byers, Matthew G. Milczark, Harvey E. Parkerson 3rd, Ivory L. Phipps.
Fewer and fewer Americans believe the war in Iraq is worth the human treasure we are losing and the staggering amounts of money it is costing. But no one can find a way out of this tragic mess, which is why that dreaded word from the Vietnam era - quagmire - has been resurrected. Most Washington insiders agree with Senator John McCain, who said he believes the U.S. will be involved militarily in Iraq for 10 or 20 more years.
more
The Dishonesty Thing (NY times)
It's the dishonesty, stupid. The real issue in the National Guard story isn't what George W. Bush did three decades ago. It's the recent pattern of lies: his assertions that he fulfilled his obligations when he obviously didn't, the White House's repeated claims that it had released all of the relevant documents when it hadn't.
It's the same pattern of dishonesty, this time involving personal matters that the public can easily understand, that some of us have long seen on policy issues, from global warming to the war in Iraq. On budget matters, which is where I came in, serious analysts now take administration dishonesty for granted.
It wasn't always that way. Three years ago, those of us who accused the administration of cooking the budget books were ourselves accused, by moderates as well as by Bush loyalists, of being "shrill." These days the coalition of the shrill has widened to include almost every independent budget expert.
more
New ammunition for Kerry (Guardian)
The lapse of the popular assault weapons ban is a timely tool for Kerry, says Philip James. If only he would use it
Just as John Kerry's prospects for victory appear to be dimming, along comes an issue that could catapult him back into this race, if only he would seize on it.
The assault weapons ban - the landmark bill signed into law by Bill Clinton that took dangerous automatic weapons off US streets - is set to sunset next week. The Republican-led Congress is going to let it lapse and President Bush - who said he was in favour of the ban in 2000 - has kept silent, in deference to the National Rifle Association, whose endorsement he wants.
This is a made-to-measure opportunity for Kerry to reassert himself around a popular wedge issue. The assault weapons ban is widely credited as one of the reasons violent crime rates took a dive in the 90s and is supported by two thirds of voters.
Kerry should do three things at once. Firstly, he should lay down a clear challenge to Bush, who, while saying he supports the ban, has made it clear he will not lift a finger to persuade congress to reconsider. "Join me in calling for an extension of the ban," he should declare, then jump on the President's vacillations, force him to clarify his position and conclude: "Now who's the flip flopper?"
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The lapse of the popular assault weapons ban is a timely tool for Kerry, says Philip James. If only he would use it
Just as John Kerry's prospects for victory appear to be dimming, along comes an issue that could catapult him back into this race, if only he would seize on it.
The assault weapons ban - the landmark bill signed into law by Bill Clinton that took dangerous automatic weapons off US streets - is set to sunset next week. The Republican-led Congress is going to let it lapse and President Bush - who said he was in favour of the ban in 2000 - has kept silent, in deference to the National Rifle Association, whose endorsement he wants.
This is a made-to-measure opportunity for Kerry to reassert himself around a popular wedge issue. The assault weapons ban is widely credited as one of the reasons violent crime rates took a dive in the 90s and is supported by two thirds of voters.
Kerry should do three things at once. Firstly, he should lay down a clear challenge to Bush, who, while saying he supports the ban, has made it clear he will not lift a finger to persuade congress to reconsider. "Join me in calling for an extension of the ban," he should declare, then jump on the President's vacillations, force him to clarify his position and conclude: "Now who's the flip flopper?"
more
Wednesday, September 08, 2004
Deficit Analysis and Bush Differ (NY Times)
WASHINGTON, Sept. 7 - Even if the United States saved billions of dollars by withdrawing all troops from Iraq and Afghanistan, President Bush would still be unlikely to fulfill his promise to reduce the federal budget deficit by half within five years, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Tuesday.
In the final independent assessment of Mr. Bush's fiscal policies before the November election, the Congressional agency predicted that, if no existing laws changed, the federal deficit would see a much smaller decline, to $312 billion in 2009 from a record of $422 billion in 2004.
Vice President Dick Cheney, campaigning in Des Moines, said the report's projected deficit for the current year was about $56 billion less than earlier predicted
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WASHINGTON, Sept. 7 - Even if the United States saved billions of dollars by withdrawing all troops from Iraq and Afghanistan, President Bush would still be unlikely to fulfill his promise to reduce the federal budget deficit by half within five years, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Tuesday.
In the final independent assessment of Mr. Bush's fiscal policies before the November election, the Congressional agency predicted that, if no existing laws changed, the federal deficit would see a much smaller decline, to $312 billion in 2009 from a record of $422 billion in 2004.
Vice President Dick Cheney, campaigning in Des Moines, said the report's projected deficit for the current year was about $56 billion less than earlier predicted
more
Missing in Action (NY Times)
President Bush claims that in the fall of 1972, he fulfilled his Air National Guard duties at a base in Alabama. But Bob Mintz was there - and he is sure Mr. Bush wasn't.
Plenty of other officers have said they also don't recall that Mr. Bush ever showed up for drills at the base. What's different about Mr. Mintz is that he remembers actively looking for Mr. Bush and never finding him.
Mr. Mintz says he had heard that Mr. Bush - described as a young Texas pilot with political influence - had transferred to the base. He heard that Mr. Bush was also a bachelor, so he was looking forward to partying together. He's confident that he'd remember if Mr. Bush had shown up.
"I'm sure I would have seen him," Mr. Mintz said yesterday. "It's a small unit, and you couldn't go in or out without being seen. It was too close a space." There were only 25 to 30 pilots there, and Mr. Bush - a U.N. ambassador's son who had dated Tricia Nixon - would have been particularly memorable.
I've steered clear until now of how Mr. Bush evaded service in Vietnam because I thought other issues were more important. But if Bush supporters attack John Kerry for his conduct after he volunteered for dangerous duty in Vietnam, it's only fair to scrutinize Mr. Bush's behavior.
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President Bush claims that in the fall of 1972, he fulfilled his Air National Guard duties at a base in Alabama. But Bob Mintz was there - and he is sure Mr. Bush wasn't.
Plenty of other officers have said they also don't recall that Mr. Bush ever showed up for drills at the base. What's different about Mr. Mintz is that he remembers actively looking for Mr. Bush and never finding him.
Mr. Mintz says he had heard that Mr. Bush - described as a young Texas pilot with political influence - had transferred to the base. He heard that Mr. Bush was also a bachelor, so he was looking forward to partying together. He's confident that he'd remember if Mr. Bush had shown up.
"I'm sure I would have seen him," Mr. Mintz said yesterday. "It's a small unit, and you couldn't go in or out without being seen. It was too close a space." There were only 25 to 30 pilots there, and Mr. Bush - a U.N. ambassador's son who had dated Tricia Nixon - would have been particularly memorable.
I've steered clear until now of how Mr. Bush evaded service in Vietnam because I thought other issues were more important. But if Bush supporters attack John Kerry for his conduct after he volunteered for dangerous duty in Vietnam, it's only fair to scrutinize Mr. Bush's behavior.
more
Tuesday, September 07, 2004
A Mythic Reality (NY Times)
The best book I've read about America after 9/11 isn't about either America or 9/11. It's "War Is a Force That Gives Us Meaning," an essay on the psychology of war by Chris Hedges, a veteran war correspondent. Better than any poll analysis or focus group, it explains why President Bush, despite policy failures at home and abroad, is ahead in the polls.
War, Mr. Hedges says, plays to some fundamental urges. "Lurking beneath the surface of every society, including ours," he says, "is the passionate yearning for a nationalist cause that exalts us, the kind that war alone is able to deliver." When war psychology takes hold, the public believes, temporarily, in a "mythic reality" in which our nation is purely good, our enemies are purely evil, and anyone who isn't our ally is our enemy.
This state of mind works greatly to the benefit of those in power.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/07/opinion/07krugman.html
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The best book I've read about America after 9/11 isn't about either America or 9/11. It's "War Is a Force That Gives Us Meaning," an essay on the psychology of war by Chris Hedges, a veteran war correspondent. Better than any poll analysis or focus group, it explains why President Bush, despite policy failures at home and abroad, is ahead in the polls.
War, Mr. Hedges says, plays to some fundamental urges. "Lurking beneath the surface of every society, including ours," he says, "is the passionate yearning for a nationalist cause that exalts us, the kind that war alone is able to deliver." When war psychology takes hold, the public believes, temporarily, in a "mythic reality" in which our nation is purely good, our enemies are purely evil, and anyone who isn't our ally is our enemy.
This state of mind works greatly to the benefit of those in power.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/07/opinion/07krugman.html
Thursday, September 02, 2004
Kerry Was Framed (Alternet)
Wednesday's Republican convention speeches framed John Kerry using deceptive and dishonest language.
Last night was red-meat night. Tear up the opposition and throw them to the dogs. This is traditionally a vice-presidential task so that the president can keep his hands clean. But this time Vice President Dick Cheney had the help of Zell Miller, a nominal Democrat who almost always votes with Republicans.
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Flogging the flag (Guardian)
The delegates wear designer chinos and yellow baseball caps and the talk is all about patriotism and duty - just don't mention the deficit, welfare meltdown or what's really in the manifesto. Welcome to the Jekyll-and-Hyde world of the Republican convention, says Simon Schama in his second G2 dispatch on the race for the White House
The banana-yellow baseball caps, the Republican Convention's signature fashion statement, single "W" sewn at the front, worn with suit and tie, or glittery top, were a dead giveaway. This is not the kind of baseball cap pulled on backwards at the ballpark or at greasy spoon truckstops where Yew-Ess-Ay rules, and Real Men take pulls straight from the necks of their Buds before wiping the foam with the backs of their hairy wrists. No sirree, this cute banana item verges on the metro- sexual. The Texas delegation, Dubya's home state cheerleaders, all sport the expected cowboy uniforms but the 10-gallon hats of white straw are polished and glossy; the blue denim shirts as softly brushed and the chinos as high-fashioned as anything you'd find in a Dallas boutique. For this, My Friends (as the platform speakers like to call us,) is a smoother, silkier, creamier, richer Republican convention, the mailed fist of war so deeply clad in the velvet glove of patriotic bonding that you'd never feel the knuckles (not unless you read the hard right party platform, with its visceral hostility to embryonic stem cell research, gay marriage, and illegal immigrant amnesties, that is).
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Wednesday's Republican convention speeches framed John Kerry using deceptive and dishonest language.
Last night was red-meat night. Tear up the opposition and throw them to the dogs. This is traditionally a vice-presidential task so that the president can keep his hands clean. But this time Vice President Dick Cheney had the help of Zell Miller, a nominal Democrat who almost always votes with Republicans.
more
Flogging the flag (Guardian)
The delegates wear designer chinos and yellow baseball caps and the talk is all about patriotism and duty - just don't mention the deficit, welfare meltdown or what's really in the manifesto. Welcome to the Jekyll-and-Hyde world of the Republican convention, says Simon Schama in his second G2 dispatch on the race for the White House
The banana-yellow baseball caps, the Republican Convention's signature fashion statement, single "W" sewn at the front, worn with suit and tie, or glittery top, were a dead giveaway. This is not the kind of baseball cap pulled on backwards at the ballpark or at greasy spoon truckstops where Yew-Ess-Ay rules, and Real Men take pulls straight from the necks of their Buds before wiping the foam with the backs of their hairy wrists. No sirree, this cute banana item verges on the metro- sexual. The Texas delegation, Dubya's home state cheerleaders, all sport the expected cowboy uniforms but the 10-gallon hats of white straw are polished and glossy; the blue denim shirts as softly brushed and the chinos as high-fashioned as anything you'd find in a Dallas boutique. For this, My Friends (as the platform speakers like to call us,) is a smoother, silkier, creamier, richer Republican convention, the mailed fist of war so deeply clad in the velvet glove of patriotic bonding that you'd never feel the knuckles (not unless you read the hard right party platform, with its visceral hostility to embryonic stem cell research, gay marriage, and illegal immigrant amnesties, that is).
more
